5G Will Outpace 4G in 2027

The new Ericsson Mobility Report projects that global 5G subscriptions are expected to reach almost 2.3 billion by the end of 2024, amounting to 25% of all global mobile subscriptions. 5G subscription numbers are expected to overtake the global number of 4G subscriptions during 2027.

In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, mobile subscriptions will grow by 2% annually from 2024 to 2030, reaching 830 million. 2G and 3G subscriptions are expected to decline, as service providers in MENA are looking into sunsetting these networks to reallocate spectrum for 4G and 5G. By 2030, 4G will account for 37% of total subscriptions, while 5G will experience significant growth, making up 60 percent of total subscriptions. The expanding availability of 5G networks, coupled with growing consumer demand and more affordable devices, is expected to transform the region’s telecom industry over the next decade.

Globally, 5G Standalone (5G SA) and 5G Advanced are expected to be key focuses for communications service providers (CSPs) for the remainder of the decade as they deploy new capabilities to create offerings centered on value delivery rather than data volume. Of about 320 CSPs currently offering commercial 5G services globally, less than 20% are 5G SA.

The densification of mid-band and 5G SA sites is seen as a key catalyst to capitalize on the full potential of 5G, including programmable and intelligent network capabilities. Almost 60% of the 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions forecast by the end of 2030 are expected to be 5G Standalone (SA) subscriptions. The first 6G deployments are expected in 2030, building on and scaling the 5G SA and 5G Advanced capabilities.

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) continues to grow in popularity globally as the second largest 5G use case after enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB). The report also addresses how AI, including GenAI Applications, already integrated across smartphones, laptops, watches, and FWA products, could impact uplink and downlink network traffic, driving potential mobile traffic growth beyond current baseline predictions.