Smart Home Market on Track for Rebound

Global shipments of smart home devices are set to stall once again in 2024 as volume remains flat with 0.6% growth to 892.3 million devices, according to IDC. High penetration and long refresh cycles in mature markets such as the US have curbed growth though worldwide shipments are set to return to growth in 2025 on the backs of emerging markets, driving unit shipments to grow 4.4% to 931.1 million units.

Home monitoring and security products such as connected cameras, door locks, and doorbells are quickly rising to the top, representing over a quarter of the volume throughout the forecast. “The upside of additional security camera purchases is often much larger than the upside of follow-up smart TV or smart speaker purchases as consumers go through their smart home journey,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC's Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. "Not only does consumer’ need for additional security coverage grow but many also subscribe to cloud storage or AI features, making security cameras a key category for many smart home companies.”

Rather unfortunately, smart speakers which helped jumpstart the smart home market, are now expected to decline 8.8% in 2024 before rerunning to a very mild 0.7% growth in 2025. The smart speaker category is in some ways reverting to simplicity as its greatest selling point – fewer frivolous displays, fewer cameras, and simplified voice input as Google, Amazon, and others eventually bring their latest conversational AI to these speakers.

AI is also expected to be a selling point for other categories such as Smart Vacuums which have seen an immense rise in recent years thanks to a flood of new brands and an increased number of price points. “Brands have mostly nailed the basics such as vacuuming and mapping and are now focused on improving object recognition through the use of AI as well as additional features such as mopping,” continued Ubrani. “This is where many of the Chinese brands such as Roborock, Eufy, Dreame, and Narwal have pulled ahead of the competition and in the case of Roborock, supplanted themselves as the market leader.”

Looking ahead, IDC estimates the smart home market to grow with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6% between 2024 and 2028, amounting to 1.1 billion units shipped in the final year. Emerging markets, the continued proliferation of AI, and a refresh cycle amongst mature categories such as TVs are expected to add to the growth.