Smartphone Shipments Grew 2 Percent in 3Q24

Global smartphone shipments grew 2% in the third quarter of 2024, according to Counterpoint Research. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of growth. While the market has enjoyed strong growth over the last few quarters, it is mainly due to a recovery in macroeconomic conditions and consumer demand.

“With the global macroeconomic crisis largely in the rearview window, the recovery wave seen previously has begun to slow down as the comparison base normalizes. Some markets, like Latin America, Japan, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia, continued to recover in Q3, recording YoY market growth. However, shipments in Western Europe and the Middle East and Africa declined YoY as economic recovery slowed down, while the respective ongoing conflicts in both regions continued to put a dampener on consumer sentiment,” said Prachir Singh, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research.

As for the world’s largest markets, shipments in the USA declined as record-low upgrade rates continued to drag down the market. OEMs in India began filling channels slightly earlier than usual for the festive season, helping drive growth. Shipments in China also grew in Q3 as the economy and consumer demand continued to improve. Huawei’s resurgence was a driver. While shipment growth may have slowed in recent quarters, revenue growth accelerated in 3Q24 recording 10% growth to reach the highest-ever levels for a third quarter. Apple led the market in smartphone revenues capturing a 43% share and recording its highest-ever Q3 revenues, shipments, and ASPs.

“A slightly earlier launch of the iPhone 16 series, a product mix increasingly favoring Pro versions, and continued expansion in non-core markets drove Apple’s success in Q3. That said there is reason to remain cautious, the iPhone 16 series has seen mixed results across regions with sales in key markets like the USA down compared to the 15 series. The large installed base of three- and four-year-old iOS devices is likely to keep a steady flow of iPhone 16 sales in the coming quarters--especially as Apple Intelligence features continue to roll out,” said Jeff Fieldhack, Research Director at Counterpoint Research.

Samsung’s revenues and shipments declined 2% largely due to declines in India and Latin America. Xiaomi’s revenue growth outpaced shipments growth largely due to a higher mix of premium devices led by the Xiaomi 14 series. Xiaomi became the global #2 briefly, in terms of sales, in August. vivo grew fastest among the top five OEMs, and was the #1 OEM, in terms of shipments, in both China and India in Q3.

OPPO’s shipments and revenues declined in Q3. The brand’s global sales returned to growth in September, led by Latin America and ‘APAC Others’. Revenues for the market beyond the top five OEMs recorded strong double-digit growth, outpacing shipments growth significantly in Q3. Android brands like Huawei, Google, and Motorola drove growth among others, with Motorola recording its highest-ever quarterly shipments in the smartphone era.

With most major brands recording strong revenue growth, the ≥$400 segment gained a net 2% share in 3Q24. The ongoing premiumization wave, observed across regions has incentivized OEMs to rethink their premium portfolio and device financing strategies. Counterpoint Research expects the premiumization trend to continue in the coming years and project global smartphone ASPs to rise at a CAGR of 3% from 2023 through 2028.

“The global smartphone market has reached maturity, and shipments are expected to remain stable in the coming years. Growth will likely be driven by emerging markets like India, MEA, and Southeast Asia. We expect smartphone revenues to continue to grow through 2028 as the premiumization trend continues across markets. New technologies like GenAI and foldables are also likely to drive ASP growth as adoption rates rise. By 2028, we expect more than half of smartphones shipped to be GenAI capable as broader use cases continue to emerge and availability expands across price segments,” said Tarun Pathak, Research Director at Counterpoint Research.