AI-Capable PC Shipment Share Rises to 23 Percent in 4Q24

AI-capable PC shipments hit 15.4 million units in 4Q24, accounting for 23% of all shipments during the quarter, according to Canalys. AI-capable PCs are defined as desktops and notebooks that include a chipset or block for dedicated AI workloads, such as an NPU.

The ramp-up in the availability of such devices led to a sequential growth of 18% for this category of PCs. For the full year 2024, 17% of PCs shipped were AI-capable, with the biggest winners being Apple at 54% share, followed by Lenovo and HP at 12% share each. The refresh cycle induced by the Windows 10 end-of-support will continue to drive penetration throughout 2025. However, Trump’s tariffs on US imports are causing uncertainty around price hikes, which could significantly impact the world’s largest PC market.

“Commercial deployments of AI-capable PCs continued their momentum in late 2024 as vendors introduced business-focused programs and products,” said Kieren Jessop, Analyst at Canalys. “Intel is anchoring in the premium tier, with Lunar Lake-powered devices meeting Copilot+ PC requirements but carrying higher costs than their main x86 competitor AMD, which is straddling premium and mid-range segments. Qualcomm is similarly bifurcating its portfolio as it shared plans to bring the X-series processors to $600-range laptops. Legacy generations of Apple’s Macs have also seen price reductions, which is helping drive its commercial share, particularly in emerging markets.”

“As the deadline for Windows 10 end of support gets closer, it is emerging as the primary refresh catalyst among partners,” said Jessop. According to a January poll of channel partners, one-third cited Windows 10 EoS as the primary driver of their customers’ refresh decisions in 2025. “Many of these partners are expecting the majority of their customers’ refresh to occur in the second half of 2025. However, looming trade policy shifts in the US threaten to disrupt the market that accounts for around one in three shipped PCs and could hamper the upcoming commercial refresh cycle and dampen an already muted consumer outlook. So far, the Trump administration has placed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, which accounts for a significant majority of laptops shipped to the US.”

Total Windows AI-capable PC shipments grew 26% sequentially, accounting for 15% of all Windows PCs shipped in Q4. “Apple finished strong in 4Q24, significantly outgrowing the top three vendors and achieving a 10.2% market share in the total PC market and 45% share in the AI-capable PC market,” added Jessop. “Apple’s channel strategy continues to evolve as they announced the Apple Partner Network, launching later this year. This revamped program simplifies partner tiers and aims to take a share in the Enterprise segment while providing the necessary services to handle customers. The program highlights Mac’s compatibility and scalability within the Enterprise environment, concerns which have previously kept them out of the segment.”