From Trade Wars to Digital Wars: The Case for Software Independence

On Donald Trump’s return to the global political spotlight, discussions around transatlantic tariffs have resurfaced, bringing a new uncertainty to global trade, including in the digital and software sectors. While much of the media focus nowadays is on traditional sectors such as automotive and agriculture, an area that remains underestimated is the IT sector – namely, the indirect impact of tariffs on software licensing models and pricing.

Trump’s proposed tariffs on European imports could reopen the debate on software autonomy. If implemented, such measures risk increasing the cost of software licenses and services originating from or managed within the EU. The consequences for companies relying on centralized cloud subscriptions, new pricing policies, or frequently updated licensing terms could be significant, especially when these companies depend on a narrow pool of global IT providers.

And here lies the paradox: in an era that promotes digital transformation, many companies are still locked into licensing models that are inflexible, overly dependent on U.S.-based vendors, and vulnerable to political decisions outside of their control. With major players, such as Microsoft, moving to subscription-only licensing and the ongoing phase-out of perpetual licenses, customers are left with less control and fewer options.

Increased payments for the EU

While these debates intensify, European companies are already experiencing disparities. It’s no secret that new software products and licensing terms are often more expensive in the EU than in the U.S. When the potential burden of tariffs is considered, it becomes clear that reliance on major U.S. vendors exposes organizations to considerable financial and operational risks.

The European Commission has long promoted the circular economy principles as a way of reducing the dependency, avoiding waste, and extending product lifecycles. These principles are equally relevant to the ITindustry. Extending the lifespan of software products by re-evaluating how licenses are acquired, used, and disposed, is not only cost-effective, but also a step towards greater independence.

Understanding the position of an organization

In this context, companies and public institutions need to assess their own level of risk exposure and determine whether their current software assets are vulnerable to future political or economic shifts.

This is where collaboration with licensing experts becomes not just useful, but necessary. Companies such as Forscope, the largest software broker in Central and Eastern Europe, can help organizations map out their licensing footprint and identify whether they are exposed to higher costs due to shifting trade policies or evolving vendor strategies. While Forscope, a company that operates in 9 countries, is best known for providing cost-effective software licensing solutions, its role extends beyond software procurement.

By consulting with licensing experts, organizations gain clarity on which licenses are future-proof, which can be maintained or scaled without triggering unnecessary upgrades or exposure to new pricing policies, and—crucially—what licensing strategies will protect the organization from tariff-related cost surges.

As the political climate shifts, so does the urgency for organizations to take control of their software environments. The renewed debate around tariffs is not merely a threat — it presents an opportunity to reassess outdated dependencies and work towards true digital sovereignty. In the current climate, the most resilient organizations seem to be those that take proactive steps today to navigate a potentially more fragmented and unpredictable future.

Mateusz Drozdowski, Head of Licensing Solutions at Forscope