GenAI Smartphone Shipments to Exceed 400 Million in 2025

One in three global smartphone shipments is expected to be GenAI capable in 2025, set to surpass 400 million units during the year, according to Counterpoint Research. In comparison, one in five global smartphones were GenAI capable in 2024.

The integration of GenAI into smartphones is accelerating faster than expected, driven by advancements in chipsets and the emergence of more efficient, competitive lightweight large language models (LLMs). As a result, these capabilities are becoming standard in premium models and are set to expand quickly into the mid-range segment starting in 2025.

Smartphone brands positioned GenAI as a key differentiator throughout 2024 and this trend is likely to continue in 2025. However, consumer adoption of GenAI use cases remains limited, as they have been unable to generate strong enthusiasm and offer daily utility. Consequently, OEMs are searching for breakthrough GenAI use cases that clearly benefit users and encourage upgrades beyond incremental hardware improvements.

Apple and Samsung are forecast to dominate the GenAI smartphone market in the early years, leveraging their strong presence in the premium segment and developed markets. Their leadership stems from deep ecosystem integration, seamless hardware-software optimization, and a loyal high-end consumer base. Both brands will continue expanding their AI capabilities through regular OS updates and a phased rollout of new use cases throughout 2025.

The democratization of GenAI-capable smartphones is expected to start by late 2026 or early 2027, driven primarily by Chinese brands like Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and HONOR, expanding GenAI capabilities into mid-range smartphone segments. As affordable GenAI smartphones become mainstream, overall shipment growth will accelerate, resulting in a noticeable decline in Apple's market share over the medium term.

North America, Western Europe, and China will likely lead the initial shipments of GenAI smartphones. North America is at the forefront of integrating GenAI into smartphones with almost half of the region’s smartphone shipments in 2024 being GenAI capable. This shipment share is expected to climb to 82% by 2028.

Western Europe is following a similar adoption trajectory. Major industry players, including Apple, Samsung, and Google, are driving this rapid adoption in North America and Western Europe by differentiating their products through premium AI-powered content creation tools, personalized AI assistants, and attractive subscription-based services. However, despite high market penetration, consumer skepticism persists, as many users remain cautious about paying extra for AI-enabled features.

The adoption of GenAI smartphones in China is expected to be rapid, driven by aggressive AI integration from local OEMs. Intense competition among manufacturers will accelerate the introduction of advanced AI capabilities into mid-range devices, faster than in other markets. Major Chinese smartphone brands have already developed their own in-house LLM models. However, these models remain exclusive to the Chinese market.

Looking forward, Agentic AI is shaping up to be the next innovation buzzword in 2025 for the smartphone industry. This technology is emerging as the next unique offering in premium smartphones, aiming to go beyond GenAI assistants by enabling more autonomous, context-aware, and action-oriented AI experiences.