Heat Pumps to Be Installed in 10 Percent of Homes by 2029

A new study from Juniper Research has revealed that the number of homes fitted with heat pumps globally will exceed 238 million in 2029; growing 35% from 2025. This compares with 177 million in 2025, which represents only 7% of homes.

Growth is being driven primarily by regulatory interventions, such as the Clean Heat Market Mechanism in the UK which instructs boiler manufacturers to have a minimum percentage of their revenue come from heat pump sales. Despite this, massive challenges remain for heat pump adoption. The study predicts that the high cost of installation, a clear lack of trained heat pump experts, and a lack of suitability for apartments will restrict acceptance beyond early adopters.

To unlock the 90% of homes that will not have an alternative heating system by 2029, heat pump manufacturers must invest in emerging technologies that create greater efficiencies in the heating process and reduce cost. The report identified R32 refrigerant as a key solution that will immediately help vendors improve operating efficiency.

“Vendors must promote the cost-saving abilities they are bringing to their units, to stimulate growth. More efficient components, such as variable-speed compressors, increase the value of heat pumps to end users by reducing their monthly energy expenditure,” said report author Thomas Wilson. The report identified that due to the difficulties in retrofitting heat pumps in space-constrained apartments, fitting monobloc systems should be a key priority to generate growth. Failure to do so will result in a stagnated adoption of heat pumps and possible regulatory fines due to missing sales targets.