Smartphone Market Grew 3 Percent in 1Q25

The global smartphone market grew by 3% in the first quarter of 2025, according to preliminary results from Counterpoint Research. Declines in developed markets were offset by growth in China owing to government subsidies and continuing recovery in key emerging markets across Latin America, Asia-Pacific, and Middle East & Africa.

“The market got off to a mixed start in 2025, where Q1 saw continued improvement in economic conditions, particularly in emerging markets. However, mature markets like North America, Europe, and China showed signs of fatigue after a recovery in 2024. Sales in January were particularly strong, with a subsidy-led demand boost in China. The momentum continued with major launches like Samsung’s S25 and iPhone 16e, but it turned quickly as economic uncertainties and trade war risks started mounting, especially toward the end of the quarter. We continue to analyze changes in policies and are currently projecting the market to decline in 2025, despite growth in Q1,” said Ankit Malhotra, Senior Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research.

OEM dynamics continue to remain interesting. Helped by the iPhone 16e launch in a non-traditional quarter and continued growth and expansion in its non-core markets, Apple took the #1 spot in 1Q25, despite the challenges faced in its biggest markets. While sales in the US, Europe, and China were either flat or declining, Apple recorded double-digit growth in Japan, India, the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Samsung followed Apple with an 18% market share. While it had a slow start due to the late launch of the S25 series, its sales showed a resurgence after the launch of the flagship S25 and new A-series devices. Samsung’s sales grew by double digits in March. The share of “Ultra” in the S25 series sales showed an increase.

Xiaomi, continuing its strong sales momentum, gained market share, helped not only by expansion into new markets but also by significant growth in the domestic market, where the brand is enjoying a bigger and more ‘premium’ brand presence thanks to its successful foray into electric vehicles. The fastest-growing top-five brand, vivo, gained a rank to take the fourth spot, thanks to its high exposure to the buoyant Chinese market and its expansion into emerging markets. OPPO came in at #5 and saw sales growth in India, Latin America, and Europe. Outside of the top five, HONOR, Huawei, and Motorola are growing quickly and providing tough competition globally. Huawei was the biggest OEM in China in Q1, while HONOR and Motorola showed high growth in multiple markets.

After a decline in the market in 2023, it has shown steady growth led by improvement in macroeconomic conditions. Smartphones, being an essential product, will always have a steady sales graph, but economic uncertainties can make consumers postpone their purchases, and thus, the rise in trade risks and the unsettling of the supply chain can negatively impact the market going forward. The proliferation of new technologies like GenAI and foldables will continue, but OEMs need to monitor demand carefully going forward. While the long-term outlook remains steady, Counterpoint Research believes the market will show a decline in 2025.